Forecasts are a mix of four major models:
- The research performed by our partner Wall Street Horizon.
ORATS proprietary analysis of historical dividend payouts.
ORATS model of dividend seasonal effects.
ORATS implied dividend feed.
Our experienced staff and sophisticated dividend algorithms then contrast and combine these perspectives to produce a consolidated forecast. We continually backtest our predictions to monitor, verify, and evolve our methods and ensure our quality. And lastly, our dividend analysts spot-check the results daily to make sure the feed contains nothing but clean data. The result is one of the best dividend forecast feeds available in the industry.
Dividend forecast video.
Our feed includes symbols, ex-div dates, amounts, and dividend frequencies. Here's an example.
Adjustments to ex-div dates are an important part of our forecasts. We forecast dividends out past the end of options expiration chains — typically about 2 years of dividend data. This makes our feed particularly well-suited to options traders. Additionally, daily alerts highlighting changes in dividend levels.
We provide a clear rationale behind the source for each forecast (e.g. whether the forecast came from fundamental analysis, historical analysis, or implied dividends). And our research staff are available for inquiries as needed.
At the heart of our approach is the use of "implied dividends" — the dividend levels implied by prices within the options markets. In the case of equities that both have dividends and have exchange-traded options on their stock, the dividend price is a major component in the calculation that traders use to compute a fair price for those options.
We run our calculation backward to compute "implied dividends," a measure that reveals the broad consensus of all players in the options market about how much a company will pay as a dividend along the entire option expiration calendar.