Forecasts are a mix of four major models:
- The research performed by our partner Wall Street Horizon.
ORATS proprietary analysis of historical dividend payouts.
ORATS model of dividend seasonal effects.
ORATS implied dividend feed.
Our experienced staff and sophisticated dividend algorithms then contrast and combine these perspectives to produce a consolidated forecast. We continually backtest our predictions to monitor, verify, and evolve our methods and ensure our quality. And lastly, our dividend analysts spot-check the results daily to make sure the feed contains nothing but clean data. The result is one of the best dividend forecast feeds available in the industry.
Dividend forecast video.
ORATS provides a daily ftp download service with all expected ex-div dates and forecasted
dividend amounts for the next 2.67 years for all stocks with US exchange listed options.
The projected dividend dates and amounts take into account seasonal irregularities observed
in the past. The dividend amount forecasts also use historical patterns to forecast future dividend growth (or decline) and to forecast how many periods a dividend will remain at a particular amount before being adjusted by the board. What makes ORATS’ feed stand out from the pack is our scrutiny of the projected amounts. We compare the computed projected dividend amount against what is being implied in the current options market. If the projected amount is not verified by the current market environment, it is tempered. Furthermore, the forecasts are split-adjusted and are converted to USD in the case when the dividend is expected in a foreign currency. This data is delivered in a space-delimited text file that contains the data for all stocks.
SFTP file times (EST) :
AA 2021-02-02 0.05 4
From left to right, Symbol (AA), Expected Ex-Date(2021-02-02), Expected Amount (0.05),
Annual Payout Frequency (4)
The frequency column will be denoted with the following identifiers describing the symbol's
observed dividend payment frequency on an annualized basis :
ORATSDividends.txt is an additional file showing the status of the next dividend. ORATS provides a daily ftp download service (free for all paying dividend service subscribers) that lists the closest upcoming dividend ex-dividend date, expected payment amount and denotes if the data is Estimated ("E"), Acknowledged ("A"), Acknowledged by one or more, but not all sources(“I”) or Overridden ("O"). The overridden designation is reserved for names that have exhibited dividend payment amounts and/or frequencies that do not perform well with our forecasting methodologies. Therefore, we monitor the name manually until such a time as it can be resubmitted to the general population.
The data is for all dividend-paying stocks with US exchange listed options.
Example data and explanations :
AAP 2011-03-24 0.06 E
From left to right, Symbol (AAP), Expected closest Ex-Date(2011-03-24), Expected Amount (0.06),
Confirmation Identifier (E = "Expected")
ABT 2011-01-12 0.44 A
From left to right, Symbol (ABT), Expected closest Ex-Date(2011-01-12), Expected Amount (0.44),
Confirmation Identifier (A = "Announced")
Confirmed, but not by all sources
XYZ 2011-01-12 0.44 I
From left to right, Symbol (XYZ), Expected closest Ex-Date(2011-01-12), Expected Amount (0.44),
Confirmation Identifier (I = "One or more, but not all sources confirm date Announced")
Our feed includes symbols, ex-div dates, amounts, and dividend frequencies. Here's an example.
Adjustments to ex-div dates are an important part of our forecasts. We forecast dividends out past the end of options expiration chains — typically about 2 years of dividend data. This makes our feed particularly well-suited to options traders. Additionally, daily alerts highlighting changes in dividend levels.
We provide a clear rationale behind the source for each forecast (e.g. whether the forecast came from fundamental analysis, historical analysis, or implied dividends). And our research staff are available for inquiries as needed.
At the heart of our approach is the use of "implied dividends" — the dividend levels implied by prices within the options markets. In the case of equities that both have dividends and have exchange-traded options on their stock, the dividend price is a major component in the calculation that traders use to compute a fair price for those options.
We run our calculation backward to compute "implied dividends," a measure that reveals the broad consensus of all players in the options market about how much a company will pay as a dividend along the entire option expiration calendar.